The California Almond Board has released the December shipment report with shipments of +156 million pounds compared to last year  135 million pounds for an increase of  +15.4 percent.  New sales during the month of December were at +103.9 million pounds during the month of December.

YEAR TO DATE SHIPMENTS:   +950 million pounds compared to 707 million pounds last year for an increase of +34 percent.

               

                                Percent up Year to date

USA                       +12.9

Export                   +45.85%

CHINA                  +49%

Korea                    +44%

India                      +41%

Germany             +26%

Spain                     +21%

Turkey                  +180%

UAE                       +111%

CROP RECEIPTS:   Now at +2.06  billion pounds compared to last year’s crop of  1.85 billion pounds for an increase of +11.44  percent.  It appears the final crop will reach approximately +2.10 to +2.12 billion pounds. 

CURRENCY:  The dollars continues to strengthen against most major currencies.  The 1 Euro is at $1.05 dollars.

RAIN:  The major story in California is not almond shipments but the volume of rain we have received during the past week!!!  All rivers are near flood stage in the northern California areas.  Snow is arriving into the high Sierra mountains.  In some areas up to 10 feet ( 3 meters) of snow will have been received during this two week storm.  Ski areas in Tahoe now have a base of 80 inches to 110 inches of snow.  Some areas in northern California are experience flooding which goes back almost 100 years.  Here are some updates for you:

Area                      Rain Season to date        Normal to date   Last year            Average Annual Total

Sacramento        15.57 inches                       8.25 inches          5.76 inches          20.27 inches

Thus we are double our normal pace for rains this year and almost received 75% of our annual totals already!

Reservoirs are filling at a record speed:

Area                      Percent filled     Compared to Normal Level at this time of year

Shasta                   78%                        122%

Oroville                69%                        110%

Folsom                 64%                        128%

Reservoirs are above averaged filled already for mid-January.

MARKETS: During the month of December many markets were extremely active in buying for their first quarter needs.  Middle East, Europe, India, and USA were all active in buying in December.  Prices have eased slightly during the past few weeks which has stimulated more demand. With each additional rain, ore growers/packers have been motivated to sell some of their inventories.  Most packers are reaching a 70% sold position on this crop and 60% sold overall for the industry when including the carry in.  By April/May the industry will begin to run light on good quality Extra #1 and NP Inshell as both have been heavily sold already.

JANUARY: Most packers are expecting stronger shipments in January this year compared to last year.  We could see shipments up 15-25% over last year.

December Walnut Monthly Shipment Report:

December of 2016 compared to December  2015 Shipments- December   2016 shipments were +67,083 Inshell equivalent tons compared to 67,418 Inshell equivalent tons last year. Representing an increase of  less than 1.0%.   So basically flat

Year to date Shipments 2015/2016 vs. 2014/2015 Marketing Year- Inshell Equivalent Tonnage for the 2015/2016 crop is 357,476 compared to 277,559  last year.  Representing an increase  of + 79,917  inshell equivalent tons or +28%  !

 CROP RECEIPTS-  Receipts are 678,825  tons as of  December 31st  2016.  The CASS Crop Estimate was at 670,000 Inshell tons.

                                                                        

DOMESTIC SHIPMENTS: Year to Date: 9,545  Inshell tons compared to last year’s 10,570  inshell tons.  Representing an decrease  of (9%)!

EXPORT SHIPMENTS: Year to date: +309,952  inshell tons compared to last year’s of 219,295  inshell tons.  Representing an increase of +41% !

NOTABLE WALNUT SHIPMENTS BY COUNTRY OF DESTINATION

December  2015 / December 2016

Inshell:                                                                                 Shelled:

China: -19,27%                                                                 Germany:   +5.22%%

Vietnam:  31.96%                                                             Spain: + 43.45%

India: + 122.28%                                                             China: +93.40%

UAE: + 201.72%                                                                   UAE: + 82.83%

Pricing:    Prices continue to rise over the last few weeks on both inshell and kernels.   Most packers are very well sold on both Chandler/ Non- Chandler Kernels and Inshell.   A few packers are even reporting that they are getting very low on all inshell varieties and only have a few loads of shelling stock left to sell until they will be completely out.  Both Howard and Tulare Inshell are almost sold out for this year. 

LHP Chandler 80’s started out this season at the level of $3.50 per lbs  FAS and have now moved up to $3.80 per lbs FAS

J/L Chandler Inshell started out at $1.25 FAS in the beginning  of the season and have now moved up to $1.40-$1.45 FAS. 

Market has definitely strengthened on very good demand.

Market: The Non- Chandler variety color was very good this year and a lot of that material has either been committed or sold up to now.  Pricing  for both Chandler and Non- Chandler 20’s, 40’s and 80’s have increased the last few weeks with very few offers and a lot of demand coming from the United States  for both Q1 and Q2 shipments.  Turkey and India continue to buy both Jumbo and Jumbo/Large Chandler Inshell for shipments in January and February. Demand has been strong from both of those countries the last few weeks. Chinese New Year will start in late January and it is unknown at this time when they will be back in the market to buy both kernels and inshell.

We would recommend to look to book your needs for Q1 and Q2 at this time as it does seem this market is getting low on much of its inventory.

Domestic market updates

Cashews:

While we’ve seen some very active trade during the first week of the New Year, things seem to have calmed down a little this week. I’m not really referring to prices but it may ultimately affect prices as well. We’ve gotten used to a new trend that has become the norm…. prices ease with a nickel or a dime and everyone buys. Then prices move right back up and everyone withdraws and this keeps happening over and over again and again…

At this point, nobody is really believing that we have a chance of significant relief at least until new crop comes around. It’s also too early to know how the incoming crop will look like… will it be on time? Will it be a large crop? Will the quality be there? And the speculation goes on and on… If there’s one thing that we need to learn from the past 2 years, it’s that one cannot rely on all this speculation! Smart buyers are covering at least some of their May-Sep needs not to be caught with their pants down! These buyers are arguing that it pays to have product on hand even with the risk of having paid a few extra pennies rather than experiencing last year’s saga again! I personally couldn’t agree more with them, especially when considering that even if the market does drop I don’t believe it’ll be very significant until we pass the bottleneck period… and who knows when/if that will actually be!

Pecans:

This commodity is beyond confusing! Prices are sky high and will very likely sustain themselves for the remainder of the crop year. Although we’ve seen some desperate sellers out there (very few) that are willing to sell at somewhat below the market, I don’t think this will affect much and it’s definitely not across the board. Those offers are coming up sporadically and if you can find ‘em, grab ‘em! I’ve seen some reports predicting a down market and I beg to differ….

Walnuts:

January is usually one of the quietest months of the year, yet we’re still seeing a lot of interest coming in from all directions. Shipments are very strong and buyers are afraid of an additional price increase. Prices are still at a very comfortable level and our advice is to book all needs thru Aug/Sep if you haven’t yet.

Almonds:

The biggest losers out there are those people that decided that God decided to abandon California after taking care of them for a few thousand years J… Just remember how those panic stricken reporters were scaring the guts out of us with those historic drought articles (according to Trump it must have been CNN J). The almond growers loved it and took us for a good ride based on those reports. Now if you’re following the news, California is drowning in rain/snow. Reservoirs are filling up faster than ever, rivers are flooding many areas, and snow keeps accumulating on the mountain peaks.

On the other end, almonds shipments are strong again and buyers are not so hesitant to purchase. I would call this a sideways market with no significant changes on the horizon.