Walnut Report December

November Monthly Shipment Report:

November of 2016 compared to November 2015 Shipments- November  2016 shipments were 104,581Inshell equivalent tons compared to 81,394Inshell equivalent tons last year. Representing an increase of  +28%!

Year to date Shipments 2015/2016 vs. 2014/2015 Marketing Year- Inshell Equivalent Tonnage for the 2015/2016 crop is +285,525compared to 210,141 last year.  Representing an increase  of +75,384  inshell equivalent tons or  +36%!

 CROP RECEIPTS-  Receipts are 675,797  tons as of  November 30^th,   2016.  The CASS Crop Estimate was at 670,000 Inshell tons.

                                                                        

DOMESTIC SHIPMENTS: Year to Date: 71,592  Inshell tons compared to last year’s 59,374  inshell tons.  Representing an increase of +21%!

EXPORT SHIPMENTS: Year to date: 213,933  inshell tons compared to last year’s of  150,767 inshell tons.  Representing an increase of +42%!

NOTABLE WALNUT SHIPMENTS BY COUNTRY OF DESTINATION

November 2015 / November 2016

Inshell:                                                                                 Shelled:

China: -48.66%                                                                  Germany:   -50.75%

Vietnam:  -9.65%                                                             Spain: + 56.12%

India: + 148.48%                                                             China: +274.13%

UAE: + 207.53%                                                                 Vietnam: -72.43%

                                                                                                UAE : + 116.30%

Prices:   Prices continue to stabilize  over the last few weeks on both inshell and kernels. Most packers are in a comfortable sold position after the last 2 months of heavy shipments, and will continue to book new business  at market levels for Q1 and Q2 of 2017 at this time.     We are starting to see some currency problems in different parts of the world having an impact on demand in Europe, India and Turkey.  Based on this report, some countries may have overbought on walnuts during the last 2 months and it could take a little while to get this inventory through their local pipelines.  Larger inventories at end destinations could have an effect on demand for the next few weeks as many markets need to digest their current inventory and what they have on the water.

Our new President – Elect Trump is also talking on taking a pretty hard line on trade negotiations and deals with certain countries and it could affect California Agriculture down the road.  We will have to see what the next 4 years brings.

Crop:   Based on current receipts, the crop will be bigger than the 670,000 tons projected.  As of right now, the receipts are at 675,797 tons.     LHP Chandler 80% and CHP have been the two items that seem to be the hardest to find.  Many packers are either well sold or over sold on 80% right now and are filling current contracts before they can put more on the books.  CHP is also very firm in pricing.  Demand has been strong for CHP from the US, Europe, and Canada, but most packers are stating they will not have as much this year as in years past due to the quality of the crop.  

As always, if there is any demand or item that we can assist on, we look forward to hearing from you!!!

It’s been a while since we sent our last market update and lots has happened since. Despite the record high cashew prices, (brazils and pecans aren’t cheap either,) we’ve seen a very busy holiday season so far. So let’s try to stick to the point very shortly and get back to work as soon as we can. ?

Cashews:

The cashew market has kept us all on edge over the past few months. Finally, we’re starting to see this market slipping off that high cliff! Forward business has been the slower side over the past week with many buyers speculating and waiting for the market to take another dip. Time will tell if they are right or wrong. I do believe that we have a big chance of some additional softening, however we do need to keep in mind that A) The Tet holidays are coming up. Keep in mind that most shippers will not ship any product during those weeks and I highly doubt that domestic traders have stocked themselves up at these record high prices to take you through that period. B) Huge pieces of business have NOT been covered yet for the first quarter of 2017. Eventually these buyers will need to come in and this could have an effect on the market as well.

So if you need any coverage for the first few months of 2017, I’d recommend on buying. If you don’t like the prices being quoted, do not hesitate to bid! Processors at origin want to SELL . As long as the bids are reasonable we have a good chance of them being accepted.

Pecans:

While we’ve all been saying/thinking that come December prices will ease, that hasn’t happened yet. As matter of fact, prices are ticking upwards again as I’m writing this report! Domestic processors are already fighting and outbidding each other on in shell! I think they are crazy! If they’d only wait a few extra weeks and buy into this crop slowly, we’d have a chance of the market coming off a little but as of now it doesn’t seem like we’ll be that lucky anytime soon. I personally still wouldn’t book out my annual needs at this point. Rather buy what you need for the next 3-4 months and let this dust settle before making any major decisions.

Almonds:

After some record shipments over the past few months, November was a slow one for almonds. Most processors have expected it to be so and do not feel any pressure to sell at lower prices. You could shop around and find some desperate guys that are squeezable or some resellers that would like to cash in on their well booked positions. Most growers aren’t that excited with the current market softness as they believe that buyers will be back soon. January will likely be more stable but as the February bloom report will be looming ahead of us, growers might feel some urgency to sell. It’s all speculation! Who knows…

Walnuts:

These are selling well! Most suppliers are backed up and having a hard time getting all those orders out on time. I do not see this market dropping anytime soon. If you need anything covered through August ’17 I’d recommend on doing so!

ALMOND SHIPMENTS: 187 million lbs  +33%

The Almond Board of California has released the November shipment report with shipments of +187 million pounds for an increase of +33.4%  over last year’s shipments of 140 million pounds.  It was widely expected that shipments would be strong and they did not disappoint.

November shipments:

Domestic             +7.1%    +52 million pounds

Export                  +47.5%  +135 million pounds

YEAR TO DATE SHIPMENTS:   now at +794 million pounds for an increase of  +38.86 percent over last year.

CROP RECEIPTS: Now at +1.93 billion pounds.  We are 9.9% ahead of  last year’s crop.  It is safe to assume there will be another 150 million pounds to be delivered over the coming months so we will see a crop of +2.09 billion pounds or higher.

CURRENCY:  Rocky ride since Donald Trump was elected President for many countries.  Dollar has strengthened against many countries’ currency.  Currently the 1 Euro is +1.08 dollars.

RAIN: California is expected to receive numerous rain showers during the coming week.  Sacramento is expected to receive 1-2 inches of rain.

MARKET: Prices have steadily weakened since late October.  Many markets have heavily bought and shipped and are now having to sell all of the loads coming to them.  In November the new sales reach 150 million pounds, which was quite surprising when many thought sales had been slow in November.  The industry is now sold at approximately 58% for the carry in plus the new crop.  This is a very healthy sold position.  Nonpareil are well sold at this time.  Many industry experts believe NP extra #1 will become very tight by April/May, similar as last year, as many markets have bought heavily on nonpareils already.  Thus if you have demand on them, we recommend you cover them sooner than later.

DECEMBER: December shipments at this point look to be slightly lower than last year.  This will be needed as the industry is well sold for the beginning of December.

We look forward to hearing from you.  If you have any specific demand please advise us.  Thanks

 Kaynar Food Marketing Team

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