Walnut Report December

November Monthly Shipment Report:

November of 2016 compared to November 2015 Shipments- November  2016 shipments were 104,581Inshell equivalent tons compared to 81,394Inshell equivalent tons last year. Representing an increase of  +28%!

Year to date Shipments 2015/2016 vs. 2014/2015 Marketing Year- Inshell Equivalent Tonnage for the 2015/2016 crop is +285,525compared to 210,141 last year.  Representing an increase  of +75,384  inshell equivalent tons or  +36%!

 CROP RECEIPTS-  Receipts are 675,797  tons as of  November 30^th,   2016.  The CASS Crop Estimate was at 670,000 Inshell tons.

                                                                        

DOMESTIC SHIPMENTS: Year to Date: 71,592  Inshell tons compared to last year’s 59,374  inshell tons.  Representing an increase of +21%!

EXPORT SHIPMENTS: Year to date: 213,933  inshell tons compared to last year’s of  150,767 inshell tons.  Representing an increase of +42%!

NOTABLE WALNUT SHIPMENTS BY COUNTRY OF DESTINATION

November 2015 / November 2016

Inshell:                                                                                 Shelled:

China: -48.66%                                                                  Germany:   -50.75%

Vietnam:  -9.65%                                                             Spain: + 56.12%

India: + 148.48%                                                             China: +274.13%

UAE: + 207.53%                                                                 Vietnam: -72.43%

                                                                                                UAE : + 116.30%

Prices:   Prices continue to stabilize  over the last few weeks on both inshell and kernels. Most packers are in a comfortable sold position after the last 2 months of heavy shipments, and will continue to book new business  at market levels for Q1 and Q2 of 2017 at this time.     We are starting to see some currency problems in different parts of the world having an impact on demand in Europe, India and Turkey.  Based on this report, some countries may have overbought on walnuts during the last 2 months and it could take a little while to get this inventory through their local pipelines.  Larger inventories at end destinations could have an effect on demand for the next few weeks as many markets need to digest their current inventory and what they have on the water.

Our new President – Elect Trump is also talking on taking a pretty hard line on trade negotiations and deals with certain countries and it could affect California Agriculture down the road.  We will have to see what the next 4 years brings.

Crop:   Based on current receipts, the crop will be bigger than the 670,000 tons projected.  As of right now, the receipts are at 675,797 tons.     LHP Chandler 80% and CHP have been the two items that seem to be the hardest to find.  Many packers are either well sold or over sold on 80% right now and are filling current contracts before they can put more on the books.  CHP is also very firm in pricing.  Demand has been strong for CHP from the US, Europe, and Canada, but most packers are stating they will not have as much this year as in years past due to the quality of the crop.  

As always, if there is any demand or item that we can assist on, we look forward to hearing from you!!!